USD / CAD - Canadian dollar idling
- BoC Business Outlook Survey ahead.- Yen mostly ignores Japanese election results.- US dollar inches lower in quiet trading.USDCAD open 1.3725, overnight range 1.3714-1.3735, close 1.3726, WTI 65.90, Gold 3366.32The Canadian dollar is inching higher in quiet trading ahead of today’s release of the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey. The BoC incorporates the survey results into its monetary policy decision process but this survey may be dated due to Trump’s latest tariff salvo. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick warned “the president understands that we need to open the markets. Canada is not open to us. They need to open their market. Unless they're willing to open their market, they're going to pay a tariff." WTI oil gapped lower in Asian then dropped from 66.44 to 65.61 after the EU imposed new sanctions on Russian oil. They will peg Russian crude prices at 15% below the prevailing price, starting at the beginning of September. The new trading week is off to a slow and uninspiring start. Traders are largely ignoring the latest round of tariff chatter from President Trump and are awaiting the EU response due sometime this week.The US dollar index is tracking slightly lower, while the yen has managed to inch higher in subdued FX action. Equity markets in Asia were mixed. Australia’s ASX 200 slipped 1.02% in a move lacking a clear catalyst, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.68%. Japanese markets remained closed for a holiday. In Europe, early optimism faded as major indexes turned negative by mid-morning. The CAC 40 is down 0.46%, the Dax is off 0.16%, and the FTSE 100 is flat. S&P 500 futures are pointing marginally higher with tech earnings optimism providing mild support. The US 10-year Treasury yield has eased to 4.37%, and gold is trading at $2,365.17.EURUSD traded in a 1.1614-1.1652 band, with participants waiting for the ECB meeting later this week and potential developments in US-EU trade tensions. Trump’s proposed 30% tariff on EU goods, scheduled for August 1, remains on the radar, though his record of last-minute reversals has muted the impact. The ECB is widely expected to keep policy unchanged on Thursday.GBPUSD moved within a 1.3402-1.3466 range, regaining ground after last week’s pullback. UK housing data from Rightmove showed a steeper-than-expected monthly drop, but it had little impact on sterling sentiment.USDJPY ranged from 147.91 to 148.82, gapping lower at the open after the Japanese election results. The decline was short-lived, with prices rebounding before softening again. The muted response reflects a lack of surprise in the outcome and thin liquidity due to the Japanese holiday. Attention is now turning to US-Japan trade negotiations.AUDUSD drifted inside a 0.6498-0.6521 range, staying quiet as traders await updates on US-China trade talks. The release of the RBA’s July 8 meeting minutes tomorrow could provide some direction.Today’s Canadian data includes Canadian data includes Industrial Product Price and Raw Material Price Indexes.
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